The Heisman Trophy race is heating up, and it’s anyone’s game—but here’s where it gets controversial: Miami’s Carson Beck has surged to the top alongside Oregon’s Dante Moore, leaving fans and analysts divided over who truly deserves the spotlight. Bold statement alert: This season’s race is more unpredictable than ever, with rising stars, falling favorites, and a few surprises that could rewrite the narrative entirely.
As of October 6, the Miami Hurricanes have stormed through their first five games, knocking off three ranked opponents and propelling quarterback Carson Beck into Heisman contention. After a brief dip in the rankings, Beck reclaimed his spot with a commanding performance against No. 18 Florida State, throwing four touchdowns in a 28-22 road victory. This primetime win over an in-state rival slashed his Heisman odds from +1200 to +500 at BetMGM, positioning him just ahead of Oregon’s Dante Moore, whose odds sit at +700. But this is the part most people miss: while quarterbacks dominate the conversation, Ohio State’s wide receiver Jeremiah Smith is quietly making waves, boasting the shortest odds among non-quarterbacks at +800 after a stellar 5-0 start with 35 catches, 463 yards, and six touchdowns.
DraftKings paints a slightly different picture, still favoring Moore at +600 over Beck’s +650, with Alabama’s Ty Simpson trailing at +700. Meanwhile, Smith sits further back at +1000, though his consistent performance suggests he’s far from out of the race. The Heisman field appears to be narrowing to these four contenders, as several early favorites have faltered due to poor play or injury. Take preseason darling Arch Manning, for instance. Once a top contender, his odds have plummeted to +8000 at BetMGM as Texas tumbled out of the Top 25. This collapse is a win for sportsbooks, as Manning was their second-biggest liability, drawing 11.3% of all Heisman wagers.
And here’s a thought-provoking question: Are we underestimating the impact of injuries and team performance on individual awards? Notre Dame’s Jeremiyah Love, once a popular longshot at +5000, remains stagnant at +4000 after his team’s struggles. Similarly, LSU’s Garrett Nussmeier (+4000) and South Carolina’s LaNorris Sellers (+8000) have seen their Heisman hopes fade due to injury and inconsistent play. Indiana’s Fernando Mendoza, briefly a favorite in September, clings to the conversation at +1300, but can he sustain the momentum?
Oklahoma’s John Mateer (+3000) and Ohio State’s Julian Sayin (+1500) round out the top contenders, though Mateer’s injury status casts doubt on his ability to stay in the race. Among the top liabilities for sportsbooks, only Smith remains a serious contender, backed by 7.2% of the money and 8.0% of total bets—second only to Manning’s 8.6%.
Controversial take: While quarterbacks dominate Heisman discussions, could Jeremiah Smith’s record-breaking season as a wide receiver challenge the traditional QB-centric narrative? And with so many favorites faltering, is this the year an underdog steals the show? Let us know your thoughts in the comments—who’s your pick for the Heisman, and why?
